Elizabeth Edwards on Gay Marriage

After John Edwards says he is "not there yet" on gay marriage, George Stephanopoulos asks Elizabeth her view. She says: "Well, it's not particularly important whether I am, but I guess I come from a more eclectic background and so it's less problematic, I think, probably for me." I think this says a lot about how John Edwards' view will evolve if he is elected. He's not ready to commit right now, but he'll get talked into it as soon as it won't cost him votes.

The Future of Gay Marriage

An article on gay rights in this week's Economist concludes with the following:

Robert Wintemute, professor of human-rights law at King's College, London, thinks so. “The long-term trend is toward the universal acceptance of gay marriage,” he says. “It's just like the vote for women. It begins in one liberal country and then spreads around the world.” Maybe—but if such a trend exists in Islamic states where homosexual acts are seen as a sin, often punishable by death, it is hard to detect.

The question of what the long-term trends are in terms of allowing gay marriage is an interesting one. Certainly in some regions there seems to be a trend towards acceptance. But in others there is clearly not. Here is a rough breakdown by various countries/region:

Western Europe/EU Members/Canada/U.S./Australia/NZ: There is a definite trend towards acceptance. In 30 years, I would guess that gay marriage will be legal in most areas in these countries. The one sub-region where this is not the case is certain areas of the U.S. that have constitutionally prohibited it (largely in response to a court ruling in Massachusetts that allowed it).

The Islamic World: No movement towards acceptance of gay marriage at all.

Asia: There are a few enclaves where gay marriage, and gay rights more generally, are more accepted than others, but there does not seem to be a strong trend toward it. It will be interesting to watch China in this regard. They are such a massive presence that any steps they take will be very influential.

Africa: South Africa has taken the lead in accepting gay marriage. It is not clear whether other countries will follow. The influence of South Africa may bring a handful of others along.

Latin America: There seem to be a few urban and other areas where homosexuality and gay marriage are becoming more accepted, but the movement is just in its infancy.

So is there a trend here? In some parts of the world, a trend towards allowing gay marriage seems fairly clear. But worldwide the issue is more uncertain. Much of the world, including Africa, East Asia and Latin America seem to be at a crossroads. There are groups pushing for gay marriage, but they face a very skeptical populace.

Gay Marriage in CT

A potentially interesting case in Connecticut. Civil unions have already been approved by the legislature, but some gay couples have gone to the courts to argue that this is not sufficient and they want full marriage rights. The Superior Court rejected the argument, saying they already have civil unions and that's enough. Now the gay couples are appealing to the CT Supreme Court. We'll see what the court does with it.

Gay Marriage in Rhode Island

A gay couple married in Massachusetts is seeking a divorce in Rhode Island, which may force the Rhode Island courts to confront the legality of gay marriage there. The courts could choose to address the issues in a narrow or broad way, so this could be a big deal or just a minor footnote.

Gay Rights in South Africa

South Africa is going to offer a fascinating test of the future trend for tolerance of gays. The elites have spoken: The high court and the parliament have said gay marriage must be accepted. But will the people get on board? Or will they resist?

Gay Rights and Democracy

Mitt Romney is pushing for the Mass. legislature to vote on gay marriage:

A decision not to vote is a decision to usurp the Constitution, to abandon democracy and substitute a form of what this nation's founders called tyranny, that is, the imposition of the will of those in power, on the people," Romney said earlier. "The issue now before us is not whether same-sex couples should marry. The issue before us today is whether 109 legislators will follow the Constitution.

To some extent, this could be characterized as taking the "high road" on the issue. Instead of focusing on whether gay marriage is immoral, he is saying that the decision should be up to the people. That certainly plays better to a general audience than explaining why being gay is a sin. Now, if there is a vote, either in the legislature or by the people, he'll have to start talking about the sustance, which will be trickier.